Tight budgets, growing cybersecurity threats, looming curriculum restrictions and book bans, and artificial intelligence flooding into classrooms—these are just some of the many obstacles and opportunities schools face as the new school year begins.

Additionally, with President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House on January 20, K-12 education administrators need to watch for changes the new administration may bring, including funding adjustments, classroom content directives, and more responsibility delegated to states and school districts. Here are six major trends to watch in 2025.

1. Rising Costs and Limited Funding Will Pressure Budgets

This year, school districts face a range of financial challenges, though some regions may be more affected than others. One major obstacle is the expiration of federal American Rescue Plan funds—the last and largest batch of federal emergency aid that has helped schools recover from pandemic difficulties since 2020.

The spending deadline for ARP funds is January 28, 2025, though some districts have a longer buffer because they applied for and received approval to extend the use of funds. High-poverty districts received more emergency funding and are expected to face greater difficulty moving away from reliance on ARP.

Other factors putting pressure on public school budgets include rising personnel compensation and other costs, as well as declining enrollment due to falling birth rates and competition from school choice programs, according to Moody's Ratings outlook released in December. Tight budgets may force districts to make difficult decisions, such as closing under-enrolled, underperforming schools, a prediction from Georgetown University's Edunomics Lab and the Thomas B. Fordham Institute.

While some K-12 experts are pessimistic about the financial outlook, others are more optimistic, believing that the new Trump administration's promises to cut federal spending and give states more autonomy will spur innovation and efficiency. President-elect Trump has called for closing the Department of Education to reduce bureaucracy, handing federal funds and programs to states, which supporters say will save costs. Trump and his supporters also want to expand school choice, allowing more taxpayer money to go toward private school vouchers. Supporters say school competition will drive efficiency and academic outcomes. Public school advocates, however, argue that private school choice programs have fewer accountability mechanisms and drain funds from public schools—which educate the majority of school-age children.

2. Staffing Shortages Persist, with Cuts Affecting High-Need Schools

Although schools report needing more staff, some researchers predict hiring will slow and there may be a wave of teacher layoffs. Last year, a survey by the National Center for Education Statistics showed that half of public school principals reported staffing shortages, but fewer schools reported operational impacts due to shortages, such as increased class sizes or assigning staff to tasks outside their roles.

Dan Goldhaber, director of the Center for Education Data & Research at the American Institutes for Research, said high-poverty schools are expected to bear the brunt of teacher layoffs in 2025. This is because student enrollment is still declining, and historic one-time pandemic relief funds flowed disproportionately to high-poverty schools—and will not be renewed. Goldhaber said, "The end of this money means that at least a significant portion of teachers in high-poverty schools will lose their jobs." He also serves as director of the Center for Education Data & Research at the University of Washington.

Special education is also a major concern, with staffing shortages persisting into 2024, and the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights is expected to release findings later this year on federal efforts to address the issue.

3. An Already Strained Special Education System Will Face Even Greater Pressure

In the new year, services for students with disabilities will play a significant role, with multiple factors adding strain to an already burdened system. First, the number of students receiving services under the federal Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, including students with autism, continues to rise. A growing student population means schools need to conduct more evaluations and provide more individualized services. For example, Ann Arbor Public Schools in Michigan conducted 481 initial special education evaluations in the 2023-24 school year, compared to 178 in 2020-21, according to testimony in December from Concetta Lewis, assistant superintendent of the district's special education office, before the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights.

At the same time, the field faces severe staffing shortages, affecting the quality and timeliness of student services, as multiple witnesses testified at a November briefing and December hearing. Lewis said, "I would hire every social worker I could to meet the growing social, emotional, and mental health needs of the students we serve."

Concerns that the new Trump administration may shrink or eliminate the U.S. Department of Education, along with increasing school choice competition facing public schools, are prompting special education advocates to speak out in support of a strong and well-funded public special education system. However, special education experts also recognize Republican priorities, including more focus on career and technical education opportunities, and strengthening collaboration and transparency with families.

The new year also brings a milestone for special education: November 29 marks the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Education for All Handicapped Children Act, later reauthorized as today's IDEA. The last comprehensive update to IDEA was in 2004. Although many experts believe the law itself is sound and does not need congressional reauthorization, they are pushing for the federal government to cover 40% of the additional per-student cost of special education services—a goal originally set when the law was enacted in 1975. Currently, the federal share for fiscal year 2025 is about 10%, with the gap covered by states and districts.

4. Book Bans, Curriculum Restrictions, and Challenges to Them Will Surge

In response to the sharp increase in book bans and curriculum restrictions in recent years, experts expect more challenges from parents and local organizations to these practices in the coming years. Meanwhile, Democratic-leaning states may continue passing laws prohibiting book bans (so-called "reader freedom laws"), said Kasey Meehan, director of PEN America's Freedom to Read initiative. In January, a New Mexico state representative introduced a similar bill ahead of the 2025 legislative session, the Librarian Protection Act.

Nationally, school book bans tripled between the 2022-23 and 2023-24 school years, according to data released by PEN America in November. In the 2023-24 school year, 10,046 book ban cases were recorded, up from 3,362 the previous year. Most banned books involved people of color or LGBTQ+ characters, as well as sex and related topics. Although Meehan hopes book bans will not rise further in 2025, she will watch whether Congress passes legislation reflecting conservative state policies, such as restricting student access to certain instructional content, potentially targeting critical race theory or LGBTQ+ content, as laws passed in Florida or Iowa.

During the campaign, President-elect Trump called for cutting federal funds to punish schools that promote critical race theory and "other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content." In his first term, Trump's push to protect American history sparked curriculum review movements at the state and district levels. Last year, lawsuits challenging book bans came close to the U.S. Supreme Court, but Meehan said it is unclear whether the Court will resolve the matter in 2025.

5. Demand for Cybersecurity Funding and Support Will Increase

Limited protections and tempting data will continue to pose cybersecurity challenges for K-12 schools. In a December 10 webinar hosted by the K12 Security Information Exchange (K12 SIX), co-founder and director Doug Levin of the national nonprofit for school cybersecurity predicted areas to watch in K-12 cybersecurity. He predicted that districts may require vendors to provide more safeguards to protect online privacy and security. Levin said, "Vendors tell us they take our privacy and security very seriously, which is clearly important, and we want to believe them. But I think we are now moving toward a stage where we ask them to prove it."

Other cybersecurity trends Levin predicted for 2025 include: districts will debate whether and how to incorporate cybersecurity costs into operating budgets; school systems will work to strengthen resilience against cyberattacks to shorten recovery times; districts will focus on tailored recommendations based on their unique network infrastructure and operations; and the education sector will increase collaboration to prevent and respond to cyber threats. Levin said, "This is an industry-wide problem affecting schools of all types and sizes nationwide and globally. It is in our common interest to collaborate, share the burden, and identify best practices."

In 2024, federal involvement in school cybersecurity deepened, with the White House, U.S. Department of Education, and other federal agencies increasing resources and support to address the rise in cyber incidents, including ransomware. According to a 2022 U.S. Government Accountability Office report, each cybersecurity incident costs school systems an average of $50,000 to $1 million, including downtime and recovery costs. To help address cyber threats, the Federal Communications Commission established a $200 million cybersecurity pilot program for schools and libraries. In November, the FCC announced it received $3.7 billion in applications to participate.

6. States Will Take on More Responsibility for AI Guidance in Schools

Over the past two years, the U.S. Department of Education has released multiple resources to help districts, teachers, and education technology companies navigate the use of AI tools in classrooms. But with the second Trump administration taking office, schools are unlikely to see more federal-level K-12 AI guidance, said Pat Yongpradit, chief academic officer at Code.org and lead of TeachAI. Federal efforts may step back because the Biden administration "has already done a lot," and priorities are expected to shift under Trump.

Instead, Yongpradit said, the responsibility for guiding school AI use in 2025 will fall on states. The specifics may vary by state, potentially including establishing K-12 AI task forces, providing statewide professional development grants, and offering innovation grants to support schools piloting AI tools. As of November, TeachAI found that 24 states had issued AI guidance for schools. Yongpradit expects a total of 32 states to continue issuing guidance in the new year. TeachAI is a national coalition of nonprofits, educational institutions, researchers, associations, non-governmental organizations, and technology companies aimed at guiding schools in the safe and ethical use of AI. Code.org is a nonprofit that provides computer science curriculum and programs to schools.

In addition to increased state-level guidance, Yongpradit also foresees more district-level AI policies—especially after a high-profile lawsuit filed in October against a Massachusetts district for lacking an AI policy. "So many people, to protect themselves, will want to have guidance in place," he said.